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Reading 27 资本预算
Basic capital budgeting model (WACC model):
Cash flow projections:
Initial investment cash flow (outlay) = FCInv + WCInv ;
Operating cash flow after tax = EBIT * (1 - T) + Dep = (S - C - Dep)(1 - T) + Dep;
c) Terminal non-operating cash flow after tax = Saln – T * (Saln - Bn) + WCInv.
注:WACC法中现金流的计算与FCFF算法是类似的。
2) Cash flows for a replacement project:
a) Outlay = FCInv + NWCInv - Sal0+ T * (Sal0 - B0);
b) OCF = (ΔS - ΔC - ΔDep)(1 - T) + ΔDep;
c) TNOCF = Saln – T * (Saln - Bn) + WCInv.
3) Other issues:
a) Accelerated depreciation effect: NPV↑(lower tax);
b) Inflation effect: nominal/real cash flow and discount rate.
2. Project evaluation:
1) Mutually exclusive projects with unequal lives:
a) Least common multiple lives approach;
b) Equivalent annual annuity approach (EAA);
2) Capital rationing: fit within the budget constraints, and maximize the NPV;
3) Risk analysis:
a) Estimation risk: sensitivity analysis (for each variable), scenario analysis (for several variables), simulation analysis;
b) Market risk: use project beta rather than company beta (pure-play method):
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